Gambling

[Fayin]

I'm not sure how it is on other servers but Midgard has seen a huge boom in gambling recently.

Well don't just immediately /blist em. If you're lucky you'll find one that has a low minimum bet, and a high max bet. And this is what you do...

Bet the minimum bet. If you win, bet the minimum bet again.
If you loose, double your bet. If you win bet the minimum again.
If you loose again, double your last bet. Repeat.

Example:

Bet 1k. Win. Bet 1k. Win. Bet 1k. Loose. Bet 2k. Win. Bet 1k. Loose. Bet 2k. Loose. Bet 4k. Loose. Bet 8k. Loose. Bet 16k. Win.

With this method you will eventually win your looses back and make minimum bid as profit.

Some things you should look out for:

• Casinos that close. Casually as you play inquire as to when he's going to close the casino. Make sure you get outta there beforehand so he can't leave if you're in a slump.
• Narrow bid range. If minimum bid is 10k and max is 100k you can only loose 4 times before you truely loose your money. Example: 10k. Loose. 20k. Loose. 40k. Loose. Now if you bet 80k and loose you cannot recoup and you have lost money.
• Naturally unlucky. This happened to me I'm naturally unlucky IRL. I just am. Not really fair but I accept it. Casino was a standard fare (600+ wins) which means I have 60% chance to loose right? Well I lost 8 times in a row and was unable to recoup. If I did my math correctly the chances of 8 consectutive losses is about 1.7% lol
• Small starting capital. To do this you need a good amount of money to start with so that if you loose a few times, you'll have enough to cover the next bet. It goes up exponentially so check how many bets you can do with your current captial before starting. Enough for 7 bets is fairly safe if you're luck is neutral.

If you try this trick and come out loosing don't blame me. Use at your own risk. But statistically, you probably won't and this becomes more true the larger the bet range. This assumes he doesn't bail and you don't run out of money if you loose consistantly.

Good luck!

[Prrsha]

Let the buyer beware though... there is nothing keeping a casino owner from running off with your money and not paying you.

[Alya Mizar (Tsybil)]

At those odds it can hardly be considered gambling.

Most State loteries have better odds than that. Vegas has LOTS better odds than that. People go broke in Vegas all the time.

The only way to make money gambling is to run the darrrnit casino yourself. That isn't gambling, that is a sure thing.

GOOD odds on Garuda, 600 + doubles, 900 + tripples. Three rolls out of ten you win 2X your Gil. Odds; 3.333 to 1. One roll out of 10 you win 3X your Gil. Odds 1 in 10. You figure it out. Doesn't take a math major.

Casino was a standard fare (600+ wins) which means I have 60% chance to loose right? Well I lost 8 times in a row and was unable to recoup. If I did my math correctly the chances of 8 consectutive losses is about 1.7% lol

The odds on consecutive rolls mean NOTHING. Each roll is in its own little univerise, isolated from each and every other roll you have ever made. Had you rolled again the odds of winning would STILL be 4 in 10.

[Sivara]

Prrsha is right. These casinos are unregulated and there's nothing stopping the operator from running off with your money. GMs can't interfere. Most people use a mule (only those who have them on their friends list can tell who the main is) or an alternate account.

Personally, I hate the casinos. There's nothing to put the odds in your favor (see my bit on Vegas below), and I'm such a tightwad with my money that I would never want to risk any of it (another reason I won't get into crafting). I blacklist every one of them. Jeuno is spammy enough without these people shouting their stats constantly.



And as an aside, I went to Vegas a couple of years ago and made enough money to cover the cost of the trip and take some extra home...simply by playing casino coupons. Coupons may give you a free Ace (helpful in getting a Blackjack), $10 in gaming machine credits (stick to video poker with favorable payouts, and avoid those machines with high-end payouts as they will always rip you off on the more common low-end hands), or even a free matching bet ($5 extra dollars when you bet $5, so your bet is $10 and if you lose, you lose only 5 instead of 10), thus tipping the odds significantly in your favor. Couple that with "common sense" strategies at Blackjack and Video Poker, and you can really clean up. You just walk away once you play the coupons out. Of course, they have tightened those up ever since so we really can't do that anymore.

[Crispleaf]

I'm pretty sure gambling with gil is against the rules (excluding Square's own gambling NPCs). So even if you try to get a casino operator in trouble for not paying up your winnings, you're liable to get into trouble yourself for even participating.

Not only that, but anyone who sets up a casino is going to set it up so they have a greater chance of winning than losing. Otherwise, there's nothing in it for them.

So chances are you'll lose, and there's no guarantee you'll get anything even if you win.

My advice is to ignore them, unless you really like giving your money away

[Fayin]

The odds on consecutive rolls mean NOTHING. Each roll is in its own little univerise, isolated from each and every other roll you have ever made. Had you rolled again the odds of winning would STILL be 4 in 10.

In this case they do. You're betting that you'll win before you run out of money, not that you'll win each time.

[Kopopo]

My advice is to ignore them, unless you really like giving your money away

If giving your money away is something you dig just send it to Kopopo.

[Crispleaf]

The odds on consecutive rolls mean NOTHING. Each roll is in its own little univerise, isolated from each and every other roll you have ever made. Had you rolled again the odds of winning would STILL be 4 in 10.

In this case they do. You're betting that you'll win before you run out of money, not that you'll win each time.

I think Tsybil is right, Fayin.

It's one of the few things I remember from the horror of taking statistics... History doesn't matter.

If you have two dice, whatever the odds were for rolling two 6s doesn't matter once you roll that first 6. The odds for rolling that second 6 is a 1 in 6 chance.

So, with these casinos, if your odds of winning is 4 in 10, it's 4 in 10 everytime you try, regardless of how well or bad you did in the past. Which means you're going to lose more often than you win.

[Sirc]

Where did the casinos come from? How are people running them? I don't remember there being anything like this when I was playing 6 months ago.

[Rueka]

They seem to come and go. They were a hot thing a few months back then they died off. Now they're around again cause everyone wants to make lots of money fast, or they just like to spam the AH areas

[Crispleaf]

Not to be all know-it-allish... But I looked it up. The web is a wonderful place

Fayin's argument is very seductive. I know a lot of people feel that way, but it's a trap perpetuated by casinos, both real and virtual. This is a type of "gambler's ruin" problem.

This is what Fayin is saying... Sure the odds are 6 in 10 that I'll lose... but the odds are low that I'll keep losing. Eventually, I'm going to win and when I do, I'll be ahead.

If you place a bet so that you can play double-or-nothing three times in a row before losing all your money (increasing your bet if you manage to win... hey, if it's a money-winning system, you should be able to play infinitely and come out ahead... so why stop?), your odds of losing all three times are:
6/10 times 6/10 times 6/10 which is
36/100 times 6/10 which is
216/1000

So, there's only a 21.6% chance that you'll lose all your money. Which means there's a 78.4% chance that you'll win before that happens.

This is very seductive isn't it?

The problem is, it's a moving target. Once you start losing, history doesn't matter. Your odds of losing get worse, not better.

What are your odds of losing the first time?

6 in 10.

So you're probably going to lose the first time. If you do lose the first time, are your odds of losing all your money still 21.6%? Not any more. Now it's
6/10 times 6/10 which is
36/100

Now you have a 36% chance of losing all your money.

Which means you have a 64% chance of winning.

Still looks very tempting. But it's misleading. What are your chances of losing when you try this time?

6 in 10.

So chances are you lost this time too.

So after your second loss, what are your odds of losing all your money now? Is it 36%? No. Because history doesn't help you in this moment either.

Your odds of losing a third time after losing twice already are 6 in 10. You only have a 40% chance of winning. Even though this seemed unlikely earlier, once you start losing, your chances of losing all your money grow steadily worse.

So once you reach this moment, you're likely to lose all your money.

So, from the beginning, how soon will you lose all your money by following this double-or-nothing system I described? Since you have a 21.6% chance of losing everything, that means there's about a 1 in 5 chance. So within 5 attempts at this system, you'll lose 3 times in a row and you'll be broke.

You could pace yourself by decreasing your bet so that it will take 4 or 5 losses in a row to go bankrupt, but eventually, given enough time, that's where you'll end up: penniless.

[Mystiana]

I'm pretty sure gambling with gil is against the rules (excluding Square's own gambling NPCs). So even if you try to get a casino operator in trouble for not paying up your winnings, you're liable to get into trouble yourself for even participating.

I thought it was too, but even with Square Enix's new policies, a GM clearly told me that gambling was not illegal (against policy), since it did not involve 'real money'.

I've thought about tossing 20k at a casino now and then, but never have. I also thought about running my own, but again, never have. Lack of ambition and lack of soul-less greed, I guess.

[Poge]

There's no way to consistantly win at these casinos so you're not going to make money and if you play for fun I have a much better way to waste 50k:

Go into Lower Jeuno and /shout "I'll pay 50k to the first person that goes streaking into Behemoth's Dominion." You have people /tell you and explain that they have to be level 1, have no armor on, and no 2hr abilities are allowed. Then you form an alliance and announce when the race will start. Finally you zone into Qufim first and get ready to watch everyone get slaughtered.

Tips:
-Set a time limit. Either 1 death each or a stopping time. It gives you a chance of keeping your money and ensures that the race doesn't go on forever.

-For extra violence, try to start the race at 20:00 when the undead come out to play.

-Get 2 friends to help referee and make them the party leaders. Tell one of them to stand at the finish line and the other to watch out for cheaters.

-If you think this race is too hard/easy feel free to run a different one.
Slightly easier but a lot longer is Sandy to Windurst.
Much more challenging is Jeuno to Middle Delkfutts Tower.
And if you want a maze race try Kazham to Norg.

-Try playing follow the leader, everyone targets you and types /follow then you run around and get them killed one at a time. Last one standing wins. (Watch out for AoE attacks).

[Kandora]

Heck with running the race. I would rather run in the race!

[Maezen]

haha wow that sounds like a lot of fun...maybe i'll dedicate a mining trip just to see this happen on Alexander...sounds like it could be really fun/funny to watch everyone die

[Baketsu]

Heck with running the race. I would rather run in the race!

Problem would be people setting their Home Points along the path of the race prior to starting the race.

[xaresity]

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[xaresity]

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